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| Titulo: |
Future meteorological drought: projections of regional climate models for Europe |
| Autor: |
H. Stagge, James
Rizzi, Jonathan
M. Tallaksen, Lena
Stahl, Kerstin |
| Palabras clave: |
Regional Climate Models (RCMs)
CMIP5 climate projections
projected change
meteorological drought
Europe |
| Año de publicación: |
2015 |
| Tema: |
Meteorología y Climatología |
| Editorial: |
DROUGHT-R&SPI (Fostering European Drought Research and Science-Policy Interfacing). Technical Report No. 25 |
| País/Ciudad: |
Estados Unidos |
| Resumen: |
This study makes use of the most current Regional Climate Models (RCMs) forced with CMIP5 climate projections to quantify the projected change in meteorological drought for Europe during the next century at a fine gridded scale. Meteorological drought is quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which normalizes accumulated precipitation for a specific location and time of year. Climate projections are based on output from CORDEX (the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment), which provides high resolution regional downscaled climate scenarios that have been extensively tested for numerous regions around the globe, including Europe. SPI is calculated on a gridded scale at a spatial resolution of 0.11 degrees (~12.5km) for the three projected emission pathways (rcp26, rcp45, rcp85). Models are first validated with respect to observed historical trends in meteorological drought from 1970-2005 and then comparing drought severity and frequency during three future time periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) to the historical control period (1971- 2000). Historical and future projections are analyzed with regard to mean, variance, frequency of moderate and severe droughts, the distribution of drought durations, number of drought events, and the maximum drought duration. Results show significant increases in meteorological drought frequency and severity for the Mediterranean region along with increases for areas along the Atlantic coast and in southeastern Europe. The majority of northern Europe is projected to experience fewer precipitationbased droughts, as precipitation is projected to increase in these regions, though incorporating increased evapotranspiration may affect these drought projections. All results are robust, with good consensus among the suite of GCM/RCM model projections. |
| ISBN/ISNN: |
No disponible |
| Ubicación original: |
Disponible en: http://www.eu-drought.org/media/default.aspx/emma/org/10859960/DROUGHT+RSPI+Technical+Report+No.+25+-+Future+Meteorological+Drought+Projections+of+Regional+Climate.pdf |
| Tipo documento: |
REPORTE TÉCNICO |
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