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| Titulo: |
Future drought impact and vulnerability - case study scale |
| Autor: |
Assimacopoulos, Dionysis
Kampragou, Eleni
Andreu, Joaquín
Carlo Bifulco
de Carli, Alessandro
De Stefano, Lucia
Dias, Susana
Lukas Gudmundsson
Haro-Monteagudo, David
Musolino, Dario
Javier Paredes-Arquiola
Rego, Francisco
Seidl, Irmi
Solera, Abel
Julia |
| Palabras clave: |
Spatial scales of analysis
different contexts
priorities in water
drought management |
| Año de publicación: |
2014 |
| Tema: |
Gestión del riesgo |
| Editorial: |
DROUGHT-R&SPI (Fostering European Drought Research and Science-Policy Interfacing). Technical Report No. 20 |
| País/Ciudad: |
España |
| Resumen: |
This report presents the results from the future impact and vulnerability assessment in the DROUGHTR&SPI Case Studies: The Netherlands (NL); Switzerland (CH); Portugal (PT); Jucar River Basin, Spain (JU); Po River Basin, Italy (PO); and Syros Island, Greece (SY). The analyses were performed for Task 2.5 “Future socio-economic and environmental impacts, and vulnerability assessments” with the objective to assess “potential vulnerabilities of the studied systems, on the basis of climate projections, socio-economic drivers of change, environmental constraints and anticipated impacts of relevant EU policies”. The Case Studies represent three spatial scales of analysis (local, river basin and national) and have different contexts (physical, environmental, socio-economic), priorities in water and drought management, and background information (e.g. data, management plans) related to drought. As a result different approaches were followed and alternative sources of information were used for the implementation of the three main Activities in the Case Studies: (i) Development of socio-economic scenarios for a mid-term time horizon (2030), (ii) Future impact assessment for the different scenarios, and (iii) Future vulnerability assessment. The analyses were supported by (i) existing information in reports on future drought impacts, vulnerability and management, (ii) modelling of the water system in the Case Studies, (iii) surveys, and (iv) consultation by local stakeholders. The main findings can be summarised as follows: Water scarcity is an important exposure-related factor of vulnerability to drought. Any effort to cope with water scarcity will thus contribute to reducing vulnerability to drought; Agriculture remains the most affected sector by drought, whereas the risk of forest wildfires is expected to increase also in the future; Results from the future impact and vulnerability assessment show that the socio-economic development pattern is the most influencing factor on future drought-related risks, compared to climate change and its effect on drought characteristics; Factors that may reduce future vulnerability are: Improvement of institutional framework on drought, Overcoming policy gaps, Establishment of monitoring & early warning systems, Development of DMPs, Increasing water-use efficiency, Use of alternative water sources, and Increasing user awareness; Factors that may increase future vulnerability are: Conflicts due to water scarcity, Status of water sources (quality and quantity), Increased variability of water availability due to Climate Change, and Economic development patterns. This report was developed by the NTUA with the cooperation of UPVLC, ISA-CEABN, UB-CERTeT, ALTERRA, ETH and WSL, who provided input for the Case Study analysis. The authors would like to acknowledge the significant contribution from UCM in the framing of vulnerability analysis, as part of cross linking Case Study and pan-European assessments. |
| ISBN/ISNN: |
No disponible |
| Ubicación original: |
Disponible en: http://www.eu-drought.org/media/default.aspx/emma/org/10853825/Drought+RSPI+Technical+Report+No.+20+-+Future+drought+impact+and+vulnerability+-+case+study+scale.pdf |
| Tipo documento: |
REPORTE TÉCNICO |
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